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Executive Summary
Despite progress, California
has the worst air quality in the nation. Recognizing that air pollution threatens
public health, Governor Schwarzenegger has made a bold promise to clean up California’s
air, committing to reduce health-threatening air pollution by 50 percent by 2010. While
programs currently in place will make progress to clean the air by 2010, achieving
the Governor’s goal of a 50 percent reduction will be impossible without substantial
new commitments to clean air programs. This report provides an assessment of
anticipated shortfalls and suggests further action the state can take to help
achieve the Governor’s goal.
Current Programs Will
Reduce Health-Threatening Pollution—But Not Enough
Smog-Forming Pollution—Current
Programs Will Fall 40 percent Short of the Governor’s Goal
We examined projected emissions
of smog precursors from ten source categories highlighted in State Implementation
Plans for cleaning up ozone. We found that:
• Key programs already on
the books in the state are projected to reduce statewide emissions of smog precursors
(nitrogen oxides and reactive organic gases) from these categories by 22 percent from
current levels by 2010.
• Additional “near-term”
measures proposed in the State Implementation Plan could achieve an additional
8 percent reduction in smog precursor emissions from 2003 levels.
• Combined, current and
proposed measures would only achieve 30 percent reductions in smog precursor emissions
from 2003 levels by 2010, cutting 1,100 tons per day (tpd) of emissions from
a 2003 total for these categories of 3,700 tpd—short of the Governor’s goal
of reducing emissions 50 percent. (See Figure ES-1)
Figure ES-1
Diesel Particulate Pollution—Current
Plans Rely Too Heavily on Federal Action
We examined projected emissions
reductions from programs included in the state’s ambitious diesel risk reduction
plan. The plan includes programs that have been adopted but not fully implemented,
including:
• Low-sulfur diesel fuel
standards;
• the Lower-Emission School Bus Program; and
• Cleaner offroad engines (i.e. lawnmowers and construction equipment).
We found that the state
plan relies heavily on two federal programs to achieve 50 percent reductions in diesel
particulate emissions. Without these federal programs to clean up airplane and
locomotive emissions, the state would fall short of the 50 percent goal. (See Figure
ES-2.)
Figure ES-2
Recommendation: Additional
Steps Must Be Taken to Get to 50 percent by 2010:
Planned pollution controls
will achieve only a portion of the 50 percent pollution reduction goal. Additional
efforts that can help fill the gap will be necessary. The state should consider
adopting:
1. Incentives to Accelerate
the Transition to Cleaner Vehicles
Incentives can play an important
role in accelerating a transition to cleaner, safer engines, achieving 200 tpd
of smog-forming emissions reductions by 2010.
• Carl Moyer Funding of
$300 million annually over the next five years could result in 200 tpd less
smog-forming emissions and a more than 10 tpd reduction in diesel particulate
emissions by 2010.
• Low Emission School Bus
Funding of $35.5 million annually for the next 5 years could help replace every
pre-1977 school bus and retrofit every 1977-1987 model year school bus with
diesel particulate filters. Most recently (FY02-03) only $4.92 million was available
for this purpose.
• These incentives could
be funded by other smog reduction programs not currently in the state plan,
such as congestion pricing in major metropolitan areas, an increase in vehicle
licensing fees, or a fee on emissions or miles traveled.
2. Programs to Reduce
gasoline consumption and VMT growth:
We found that even with
stronger standards for new cars and trucks, onroad mobile sources are projected
to be responsible for more than one-third of all statewide smog precursor emissions
in 2010, in part due to continued growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT).
If the state adopted programs
to slow projected VMT growth by 50 percent, we estimate 100 tpd or more of smog pollution
could potentially be averted. Such programs could include vehicle emissions
fees, mass transit investment, and land use policy.
In addition, broader efforts
to stabilize gasoline and diesel fuel consumption at current levels could help
control emissions growth in the mobile sources sector.
3. Stopping Federal
Rollbacks and Advocating Strong New Federal Measures Are Also Important
• Achieving the Governor’s
Healthy Air Goal for smog by 2010 will require accelerating progress in achieving
federal air quality standards for ozone, despite a U.S. EPA decision that would
allow such progress to be delayed beyond the original 2010 deadline.
• Achieving the Healthy
Air Goal for diesel particulates with the current plan relies heavily on clean-up
of sources under federal jurisdiction (locomotives and airplanes). Such sources
represent 45 percent of the potential emissions reductions achievable under the plan.
Therefore, successful advocacy for federal regulation or additional, unidentified
measures will be necessary to cut diesel pollution by 50 percent.
Why Achieving the 50 percent
Goal Matters
While cutting levels of
smog-precursor emissions and diesel particulates in half by 2010 will require
substantial commitment from state leaders and the public, this investment will
reap returns in improved public health and quality of life for all those who
live, work, and grow up in the state of California. Without taking this step,
severe pollution levels will continue to threaten public health in the state:
Smog
• In 2003 alone, 120 pounds
of smog pollution were emitted by manmade sources for each resident of the state
of California—equivalent to 5,900 tons per day.
• Nine of the 10 counties
nationwide with the worst ozone levels are located in California.
• 5.5 million of the state’s
children live in areas with air quality that fails federal health standards
for ozone. Pediatric asthma has skyrocketed in recent years, and recent studies
have documented that exposure to ozone not only exacerbates asthma, but also
can actually cause children to develop asthma.
Diesel Particulates
• In 2000, manmade sources
emitted 28,000 tons of diesel particulates statewide.
• Californians face a significant
elevated cancer risk from breathing outdoor air with high levels of diesel particulates.
Exposure to diesel particulates—if it continues at current levels—will cause
16,000 additional lifetime cancers in California.
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